This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
A mathematical strategy for decision-making under uncertainty: sample the first 37% of available options without choosing, then select the next option that beats all previous ones. Applied to hiring, dating and any sequential selection problem.
When it shows up
Sequential choices where you can't return to rejected options: job candidates in order, apartment hunting, dating. Any situation where decisions are locked in and the future sample is finite.
Failure mode
Without a stopping rule, you either commit too early (to someone who seemed great compared to nothing) or never stop (holding out for someone better than anyone you'll actually meet).
Countermeasure
Sample the first 37% of expected options without committing. After that, take the next option that exceeds all sampled ones. The math beats intuition; it's optimal under the assumption of random order.
Related traps
Also connected in the map2 more, locked
Credit & first seen
PopularizedFormalised in mathematics in the 1960s; popularized by Martin Gardner in Scientific American (1960). source ↗
Also revealed
Entry #558 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon