This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
The realisation that it is impossible to immediately know if an event is "good" or "bad" because every outcome leads to a chain of further outcomes.
When it shows up
Immediately after any significant event - positive or negative. In expert witness testimony: when a specialist forgets what they did not know at the time of an event. In code documentation: when a developer cannot reconstruct the reasoning behind their own decisions three months later.
Failure mode
Premature and wrong causal judgment about whether an event is good or bad. Failing to track the downstream consequences of things that felt like catastrophes or triumphs.
Countermeasure
Hold your evaluation of any significant event lightly for longer than feels comfortable. Ask: "What are the second and third-order consequences that might not be visible yet?"
Related traps
Also connected in the mapOutcome Bias·2 more, locked
Credit & first seen
PopularizedCoined/popularized by Gurwinder Bhogal (The Prism - gurwinder.blog). First heard on Modern Wisdom with Chris Williamson () source ↗
Read next
Entry #144 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon