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TRAP #142 ·VOL I The Individual · Attention, Prediction & Knowledge GapsLEXICON ENTRY

The Impact Bias

Discovered by Daniel Gilbert, 2006

You overestimate how much a future outcome will change how you feel.
Category: BiasEvidence: ReplicatedUniversality: HighTier 1Type: Mechanismⓘ what these mean

This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.

Definition

Primary concept: Affective Forecasting Error. Impact Bias is the core mechanism of Affective Forecasting Error - overestimating intensity and duration of emotional responses.

When it shows up

Before a major life event - a move, a wedding, a promotion, a medical procedure.

Failure mode

Overestimating both positive and negative future emotional states. Making decisions based on forecasted emotions that won't materialise at the predicted intensity or duration.

Countermeasure

Ask people who've already experienced what you're anticipating how they actually feel now. Their reports are far more accurate than your predictions. Expect both highs and lows to be milder.

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Related traps

Also connected in the map4 more, locked

Credit & first seen

DiscoveredDocumented by Daniel Gilbert and Timothy Wilson at Harvard University; discussed in Gilbert's Stumbling on Happiness (2006). source ↗

Also revealed

Want the full correction for The Impact Bias?

This entry has the mechanism and countermeasure. The full write-up - real cases, sources, the audit prompt - comes later.

Entry #142 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon