This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
The tendency for people to overestimate their ability to influence events that are objectively determined by chance.
When it shows up
Dice games where blowing on the dice feels like it matters. Stock picking where personal research feels like it improves random outcomes. Sporting rituals, driving versus flying fear.
Failure mode
Sense of agency inflates in situations where agency is absent or minimal. The feeling of 'I can influence this' persists even when the outcome is random. Effort and attention are poured into levers that do not move the outcome.
Countermeasure
Separate outcomes from choices. Ask: 'If I had done the opposite, would the outcome statistics actually differ?' If the answer requires a controlled experiment you have not run, the control is imagined.
Related traps
Also connected in the map2 more, locked
Credit & first seen
DiscoveredIdentified by psychologist Ellen Langer in her landmark 1975 paper.
Also revealed
Entry #98 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon