This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
The difficulty people have in predicting how much their current or future emotions will influence their actual behaviour. In a cold state, we underestimate how much anger, hunger or lust will affect our future choices.
When it shows up
Planning for future situations from a current emotional state: shopping while full, deciding while calm, advising while rested. Predicting your own response to future emotion.
Failure mode
The current emotional state is projected onto the future self. Hot states (anger, hunger, lust, fear) are systematically underestimated when predicted from a cold state; cold states feel permanent when you're in a hot one. Both fail at modeling the other.
Countermeasure
Plan for future hot states when you're in a cold one, using commitment devices. Don't trust hot-state decisions made without a cold check; don't trust cold-state predictions of what you'll do when activated.
Related traps
Also connected in the map10 more, locked
Credit & first seen
DiscoveredResearched by George Loewenstein at Carnegie Mellon University; a key concept in behavioural economics.
Also revealed
Entry #63 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon