This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
The heuristic that the best evidence you are not currently being an idiot is the fact that you sometimes worry about whether you might be one. Actual idiots never wonder if they are idiots - the Dunning-Kruger effect ensures their metacognitive blindness. The willingness to entertain the possibility of one's own foolishness is therefore the first requirement of non-foolishness.
When it shows up
When you feel confident that you're not being an idiot about something. In any expert field: when understanding your own calibration helps you communicate uncertainty to stakeholders. In research: when hypothesis pre-registration forces you to articulate your prior before seeing data.
Failure mode
The Dunning-Kruger peak: peak confidence at minimum competence. The person who rarely questions their judgment is not well-calibrated - they're blind.
Countermeasure
Treat the occasional worry that you might be wrong as a sign of healthy functioning. Ask: "Have I recently wondered whether I might be wrong about this?" If never, that's the red flag.
Related traps
Also connected in the mapThe Bias Blind Spot·1 more, locked
Credit & first seen
PopularizedAttributed to Robert Anton Wilson; discussed by Gurwinder Bhogal,30 Useful Concepts(Autumn 2023, https://gurwinder.blog/p/30-useful-principles-autumn-2023).
Read next
Entry #598 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon