This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
The framework for understanding how people distinguish meaningful signals from background noise under uncertainty - and how the threshold for deciding "yes, I detect it" is influenced by motivation, expectations and the costs of false alarms versus misses.
When it shows up
Waiting for a text back; interpreting social silences; trying to detect lies or genuine emotion.
Failure mode
Generating false positives (seeing interest where there's none) or false negatives (missing genuine concern because you set the bar too high). Poor signal detection raises both error types.
Countermeasure
Ask: "What is my base rate for this signal being real?" Adjust thresholds consciously based on the cost of each error type. Don't rely on gut feel alone.
Related traps
Also connected in the map3 more, locked
Credit & first seen
DiscoveredGreen, D.M.&Swets, J.A. (1966). Signal Detection Theory and Psychophysics. Wiley source ↗
Also revealed
Entry #560 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon