This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
Primary concept: Hyperbolic Discounting. Restraint Bias is Hyperbolic Discounting misapplied to self-control predictions.
When it shows up
When planning to resist a temptation that isn't currently present; in any scenario requiring future self-control. In expert witness testimony: when a specialist forgets what they did not know at the time of an event. In code documentation: when a developer cannot reconstruct the reasoning behind their own decisions three months later.
Failure mode
Over-committing to future abstinence in situations you won't be able to maintain. "I'll be fine, I can stop whenever I want."
Countermeasure
Treat your future capacity for self-control as roughly equal to your present capacity in the tempting situation. Design your environment to make the temptation unavailable.
Related traps
Also connected in the map3 more, locked
Credit & first seen
DiscoveredDocumented by Loran Nordgren, Frenk van Harreveld and Joop van der Pligt (2009). source ↗
Also revealed
Entry #147 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon