CogniqOS
Subscribe

TRAP #074 ·VOL I The Individual · Decision-Making & Choice

Plan Continuation Bias

We continue with an original plan even when changing conditions make it dangerous or suboptimal to do so.
Category: BiasEvidence: ReplicatedTier 1Type: Patternⓘ what these mean

This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.

When it shows up

Aviation (the leading cause of controlled flight into terrain - pilots continue approaches in deteriorating weather). Project management (teams push forward on failing timelines). Military operations (commanders stick to plans after the battlefield changes). Startups continuing to build features nobody wants because the roadmap said so.

Failure mode

"We've come this far" becomes a reason to continue rather than a sunk cost. The plan becomes the goal instead of the outcome the plan was designed to achieve. Worst case: fatal accidents in aviation, mountaineering and surgery from failure to abort.

Countermeasure

Build explicit decision gates with pre-committed abort criteria before beginning. Ask at each gate: "If I were starting fresh right now, would I choose this course of action?" Apply CL-10 (Sunk Cost Reset) and CL-6 (Pre-Mortem).

Related traps

Also connected in the map6 more, locked

Also revealed

Want the full correction for Plan Continuation Bias?

This entry has the mechanism and countermeasure. The full write-up - real cases, sources, the audit prompt - comes later.

Entry #74 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon