This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of negative outcomes.
When it shows up
After a setback or disappointment. During anxious or depressive states. When evaluating future prospects while the present is difficult.
Failure mode
The worst-case future is projected as the likely one. Probability weights on good outcomes are dropped, not because the evidence shifted but because the mood filter is rejecting them at the gate.
Countermeasure
Separate prediction from mood by writing down specific probabilities for each possible outcome. Compare to base rates for similar past situations. The mood will not match the math.
Related traps
Also connected in the map3 more, locked
Credit & first seen
DiscoveredDocumented across numerous studies; considered the counterpart to optimism bias in calibration research.
Also revealed
Entry #41 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon