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TRAP #072 ·VOL I The Individual · Decision-Making & Choice

Path Dependence Bias

Discovered by Hal Arkes, 1985

The decisions made before you were born are still making your decisions for you.
Category: BiasEvidence: ContestedUniversality: ModerateTier 2Type: Patternⓘ what these mean

This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.

Definition

The tendency to keep inefficient systems or habits simply because they have become the accepted norm. The QWERTY keyboard was designed to slow typists down and prevent typewriter jams - yet here we still are.

When it shows up

Established technologies, organisational processes, cultural practices. Questions like 'why do we do it this way?' where the answer is 'historical accident'.

Failure mode

Systems lock into configurations chosen early for reasons no longer relevant. QWERTY was for mechanical typewriters; we use it on phones. Switching costs accumulate faster than pressure to switch so inefficient arrangements persist.

Countermeasure

Distinguish historical path from current optimum. When designing new systems, assume path dependence will lock in your choices. When stuck in old systems, measure switch cost versus ongoing friction before assuming change is too expensive.

Related traps

Also connected in the map5 more, locked

Credit & first seen

DiscoveredArkes, H.R.&Blumer, C. (1985).'The psychology of sunk cost.'Organisational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes 35(1), 124-140 source ↗

Also revealed

Want the full correction for Path Dependence Bias?

This entry has the mechanism and countermeasure. The full write-up - real cases, sources, the audit prompt - comes later.

Entry #72 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon