This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
The refusal to plan for or react to, a disaster which has never happened before, leading to the belief that "nothing bad will happen."
When it shows up
Disaster planning, institutional risk management, personal preparedness. The assumption that tomorrow will be like today.
Failure mode
The mind extrapolates from recent experience. Disasters that haven't happened in living memory feel impossible; their probability is estimated near zero even when data suggests otherwise. Planning converges on small perturbations; tail risks are ignored.
Countermeasure
For any system, explicitly consider disasters beyond living memory. Historical and geological records extend the view. Plan for events with return periods longer than your experience.
Related traps
Also connected in the map5 more, locked
Credit & first seen
DiscoveredStudied in disaster psychology and emergency management research.
Also revealed
Entry #37 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon