This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
When it shows up
Mark Twain's cat who sat on a hot stove: she never sat on a hot stove again but she never sat on a cold one either. Investors who abandon an asset class after one bad year. Managers who stop delegating after one employee underperforms. Diners who never return to a restaurant after one bad meal.
Failure mode
Learning the wrong lesson from negative experience. Over-generalising from a single bad outcome. Systematically avoiding options that are statistically superior because of one salient failure. The emotional memory of the bad outcome dominates the statistical reality.
Countermeasure
Ask: "Was the bad outcome caused by the option itself or by randomness?" Distinguish between options that are genuinely worse and options where you got unlucky. Apply CL-2 (Base Rate Check).
Related traps
Also connected in the mapOutcome Bias·3 more, locked
Read next
Entry #68 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon