This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
A mental model for avoiding a single critical failure that can permanently end "the game" (e.g., neglecting a seatbelt).
When it shows up
Risk analysis for irreversible high-consequence decisions: seatbelts, backup systems, financial ruin risk, relationship dealbreakers.
Failure mode
Expected-value reasoning averages catastrophic loss against small probability. But ruin ends the game; no future recovery averages back in. The 99% good outcomes cannot compensate for the 1% game-over.
Countermeasure
For ruin-risk decisions, bound the downside absolutely rather than weighting by probability. Never accept even a small chance of catastrophic permanent loss in exchange for small gains. Survival first, optimisation second.
Related traps
Also connected in the map3 more, locked
Credit & first seen
PopularizedCoined/popularized by Gurwinder Bhogal (The Prism - gurwinder.blog). First heard on Modern Wisdom with Chris Williamson () source ↗
Also revealed
Entry #550 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon