This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
The phenomenon in which we assign greater or lesser moral praise or blame to people based on outcomes that were partly or entirely outside their control.
When it shows up
Judgments of blame and praise after outcomes: the drunk driver who didn't hit anyone versus the one who did, identical recklessness rated differently based on chance.
Failure mode
Identical actions are judged differently based on outcomes that depended on luck. Blame and praise track results, not behaviour, even though behaviour is the only thing the actor controlled.
Countermeasure
Judge the action by the reasoning behind it and the foreseeable risk, not by how it turned out. Two drunk drivers are equally culpable; the one who hit a child was unluckier, not worse.
Related traps
Also connected in the mapThe Fundamental Attribution Error·Outcome Bias·3 more, locked
Credit & first seen
DiscoveredNagel, T.&Williams, B. (1976).'Moral luck.'Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society (Supplementary Volume) 50, 115-135. Introduced simultaneously and independently by both philosophers in paired papers published in the same volume. source ↗
Read next
Entry #102 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon