This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
The perception of a relationship between two variables even when no such relationship exists.
When it shows up
Interpreting correlations between unrelated variables; in any statistical analysis. Modern context: A growth team notices that two of their best-performing campaigns both ran on Thursdays and begins scheduling all major launches on Thursdays, attributing causality to a coincidence in a small sample.
Failure mode
Building false theories about causal relationships. Designing interventions based on spurious associations. Seeing meaningful patterns in noise.
Countermeasure
Ask: "What is the plausible causal mechanism?" Correlation without mechanism is a hypothesis requiring investigation, not a finding.
Related traps
Also connected in the mapThe Narrative Fallacy·5 more, locked
Credit & first seen
DiscoveredIdentified by Loren Chapman (1967); studied extensively in stereotyping and clinical psychology research. source ↗
Read next
Entry #28 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon