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TRAP #025 ·VOL I The Individual · Judgment & Evaluation ErrorsLEXICON ENTRY

Hard-easy Effect

Discovered by Sarah Lichtenstein, 1977

Overconfident on Hard Tasks, Underconfident on Easy Ones Calibration flips at the difficulty boundary. *(Evidence: Strong)* A systematic calibration error where people are overconfident in their judgments on hard tasks (assigning too-high probability to being correct) and underconfident on easy tasks (assigning too-low probability). The crossover point varies by domain expertise. The effect compounds with the Overconfidence Effect but is distinct: it predicts the direction of miscalibration from task difficulty.
Category: BiasEvidence: ReplicatedTier 1Type: Mechanismⓘ what these mean

This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.

When it shows up

Test-takers overconfident on hard questions. Experts underconfident on routine diagnoses. Startup founders overconfident on hard pivots, underconfident on easy operational improvements.

Failure mode

Resources are misallocated: too much confidence invested in uncertain bets, not enough in near-certain wins. Planning for hard tasks underestimates risk; planning for easy tasks overestimates it.

Countermeasure

When a task feels hard: widen confidence intervals. When a task feels easy: resist the urge to hedge. Use reference class forecasting to anchor difficulty assessment externally.

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Related traps

Also connected in the map3 more, locked

Also revealed

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This entry has the mechanism and countermeasure. The full write-up - real cases, sources, the audit prompt - comes later.

Entry #25 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon