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TRAP #065 ·VOL I The Individual · Decision-Making & Choice

Fredkin’s Paradox

The decision that tortures you longest is usually the one that matters least.
Category: BiasEvidence: ReplicatedUniversality: HighTier 1Type: Mechanismⓘ what these mean

This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.

Definition

The observation that the more similar two choices are, the harder it is to choose between them, even though the choice matters less - since the outcomes are nearly identical either way.

When it shows up

Agonizing over choices between nearly identical options: two similar jobs, two similar houses, two similar products. Decision paralysis at the point of smallest practical difference.

Failure mode

The more similar two choices are, the longer you deliberate, even though the smaller the difference the less the deliberation matters. Time spent deciding between near-equivalents has near-zero payoff.

Countermeasure

When options are close, flip a coin or set a deadline. The cost of either choice is small; the cost of continued deliberation is large. Distinguish decisions that warrant analysis from ones that warrant closure.

Related traps

Also connected in the map2 more, locked

Credit & first seen

DiscoveredFredkin, E. (cited). See: Bhogal, G.Gurwinder's Third Paradox.The Prism. gurwinder.blog source ↗

Also revealed

Want the full correction for Fredkin’s Paradox?

This entry has the mechanism and countermeasure. The full write-up - real cases, sources, the audit prompt - comes later.

Entry #65 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon