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TRAP #151 ·VOL I The Individual · Meta-Cognition & Epistemics

Epistemic Luck

Your beliefs are largely an accident of your birth coordinates.
Category: BiasEvidence: ReplicatedUniversality: HighTier 1Type: Mechanismⓘ what these mean

This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.

Definition

The recognition that your beliefs are often products of your specific time, place and social circle rather than objective truth. You would hold entirely different views had you been born elsewhere.

When it shows up

Reflecting on how you came to hold your views. Recognising that your beliefs depend largely on your birth circumstances, language, era, exposure.

Failure mode

Most beliefs you hold were shaped by variables you didn't choose. Born elsewhere, you'd hold different beliefs with similar conviction. The conviction is poorly calibrated to the evidence; it's calibrated to circumstance.

Countermeasure

Periodically ask: 'If I'd been born in a different century/country/family, what would I believe?' If the answer is 'something very different but with equal conviction', your current conviction is overconfident.

Related traps

Also connected in the map4 more, locked

Credit & first seen

DiscoveredDiscussed in contemporary epistemology; associated with philosopher Duncan Pritchard.

Also revealed

Want the full correction for Epistemic Luck?

This entry has the mechanism and countermeasure. The full write-up - real cases, sources, the audit prompt - comes later.

Entry #151 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon