This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
When it shows up
Revising forecasts after earnings reports. Updating risk models after market regime changes. Adjusting medical diagnoses after new test results arrive. The prior estimate exerts gravitational pull on the revision, producing systematic under-reaction.
Failure mode
Missing inflection points because each new data point only nudges the estimate slightly. Analysts revise earnings forecasts by 50-75% of what the evidence warrants. Diagnosis updates lag behind accumulating symptoms.
Countermeasure
Use Bayesian updating explicitly. Quantify the prior, quantify the evidence strength, compute the posterior. Compare your intuitive update to the mathematical one. Apply CL-3 (Outside View Switch).
Related traps
Also connected in the map3 more, locked
Also revealed
Entry #15 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon