This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
The observation that many people do not have an opinion on a subject until they are asked, at which point they cobble one together and immediately decide to "die on that hill."
When it shows up
Listening to someone confidently explaining something they know nothing about. Party conversation, social media, interviews with generalists.
Failure mode
Most people, when asked about a topic they don't know, generate a coherent-sounding opinion in real time and report it with the same confidence they'd use for genuine knowledge. The listener can rarely tell the difference between a confidently-delivered generated opinion and a confidently-delivered informed one.
Countermeasure
Ask for specifics. 'What makes you think that?' 'Where did you read that?' 'What would change your mind?' Bespoke bullshit collapses when asked for the second layer; real knowledge survives interrogation.
Related traps
Also connected in the map5 more, locked
Credit & first seen
PopularizedCoined/popularized by Gurwinder Bhogal (The Prism - gurwinder.blog). First heard on Modern Wisdom with Chris Williamson () source ↗
Also revealed
Entry #89 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon