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TRAP #007 ·VOL I The Individual · Judgment & Evaluation ErrorsLEXICON ENTRY

Belief Bias

We accept conclusions that align with what we already believe, regardless of the logical structure supporting them.
Category: BiasEvidence: ReplicatedTier 1Type: Mechanismⓘ what these mean

This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.

When it shows up

Evaluating arguments in debates, policy analysis, assessing business proposals. A well-structured argument for an unpopular conclusion gets rejected; a poorly structured argument for a popular conclusion gets accepted. In hiring: candidates whose worldview matches the interviewer's get credited with stronger reasoning.

Failure mode

Accepting invalid arguments because the conclusion feels right. Rejecting valid arguments because the conclusion feels wrong. Logical structure becomes invisible when emotional agreement is present.

Countermeasure

Evaluate the argument's structure independently of its conclusion. Ask: "Would I accept this reasoning if it led to a conclusion I disagreed with?" Apply CL-4 (Disconfirming Evidence Search).

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Related traps

Also connected in the map3 more, locked

Also revealed

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This entry has the mechanism and countermeasure. The full write-up - real cases, sources, the audit prompt - comes later.

Entry #7 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon