This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
Primary concept: System 1 vs. System 2. This entry examines a specific dimension; see System 1 vs. System 2 for the broader mechanism.
When it shows up
Any hard question answered too quickly. Estimating probability, forecasting an emotional reaction, judging someone's competence, assessing risk. The harder the real question, the more automatic the swap. Modern context: An interviewer asked to evaluate a candidate's likely job performance answers the easier questiondid I enjoy talking to this person?and then reports high confidence in their performance prediction.
Failure mode
The mind silently answers an easier related question (how vivid is the example? how likable is the person? how does the story feel?) and reports the answer as if it were to the original. The substitution is invisible at the moment it happens.
Countermeasure
After the answer arrives, ask: 'What was the actual question and what did I actually compute?' If the two differ, substitution ran. Force the harder computation explicitly. When correction costs more than the bias: In time-pressured situations where the substituted question is a valid proxy for the hard one. Expert clinicians who answerdoes this patient look sick?rather than running full diagnostic trees are not making an error - they are applying calibrated pattern recognition. Substitution is adaptive when the surrogate question is well-calibrated.
Related traps
Also connected in the mapThe Affect Heuristic·8 more, locked
Read next
Entry #4 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon