This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
When it shows up
Investment decisions (preferring domestic stocks with familiar risk profiles over foreign stocks with higher expected returns). Career choices (staying in a known-quantity job vs. taking a role with unknown but potentially better trajectory). Insurance purchasing (overbuying coverage for well-understood risks while ignoring poorly-understood ones).
Failure mode
Systematically avoiding uncertainty leads to suboptimal portfolios of risk. We over-invest in the known-bad and under-invest in the unknown-good. The familiar risk feels manageable; the unfamiliar risk feels unbounded.
Countermeasure
Distinguish between risk (known probabilities) and uncertainty (unknown probabilities). For uncertain options, estimate the range of possible outcomes rather than avoiding them entirely. Ask: "Am I avoiding this because the probability is bad or because the probability is unknown?" Apply CL-3 (Outside View Switch).
Related traps
Also connected in the map4 more, locked
Also revealed
Entry #56 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon