This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
The difficulty people have in predicting how much their current or future emotions will influence their actual behaviour. In a cold state, we underestimate how much anger, hunger or lust will affect our future choices.
When it shows up
Planning for future situations from a current emotional state: shopping while full, deciding while calm, advising while rested. Predicting your own response to future emotion.
Failure mode
The current emotional state is projected onto the future self. Hot states (anger, hunger, lust, fear) are systematically underestimated when predicted from a cold state; cold states feel permanent when you're in a hot one. Both fail at modeling the other.
Countermeasure
Plan for future hot states when you're in a cold one, using commitment devices. Don't trust hot-state decisions made without a cold check; don't trust cold-state predictions of what you'll do when activated.
Related concepts
Also connected in the mapHyperbolic Discounting·Present Bias·Projection Bias·Ostrich Effect·The Hungry Judge Effect·Restraint Bias·Mirror Neurons·The Dread Aversion Effect·Tachypsychia·The Yes-Damn Effect
Origin
Read next
Entry #63 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon