CogniqOS
Subscribe

CONCEPT #147 ·VOL I The Individual · Attention, Prediction & Knowledge GapsLEXICON ENTRY

Restraint Bias

Discovered by Loran Nordgren, 2009 · Origin ↓

You're sure you can resist it. You're sure because it isn't in front of you right now.
Category: BiasEvidence: ReplicatedUniversality: HighTier 1Type: Mechanismⓘ what these mean

This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.

Definition

Primary concept: Hyperbolic Discounting. Restraint Bias is Hyperbolic Discounting misapplied to self-control predictions.

When it shows up

When planning to resist a temptation that isn't currently present; in any scenario requiring future self-control. In expert witness testimony: when a specialist forgets what they did not know at the time of an event. In code documentation: when a developer cannot reconstruct the reasoning behind their own decisions three months later.

Failure mode

Over-committing to future abstinence in situations you won't be able to maintain. "I'll be fine, I can stop whenever I want."

Countermeasure

Treat your future capacity for self-control as roughly equal to your present capacity in the tempting situation. Design your environment to make the temptation unavailable.

Get the pre-decision checklist →

Related concepts

Also connected in the mapPresent Bias·The Empathy Gap·Projection Bias

Origin

Loran NordgrenDiscovered by, 2009Loran NordgrenBehavioural scienceThe restraint bias - we overrate our power to resist temptation.See in Origins →

Read next

Want the full correction for Restraint Bias?

This entry has the mechanism and countermeasure. The full write-up - real cases, sources, the audit prompt - comes later.

Entry #147 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon