This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
The tendency to overestimate how much our future selves will share the same tastes, values and preferences as our current selves. Shopping when hungry - and regretting it later - is the everyday version. Note: The distinction between projection bias (overestimating the similarity between current and future preferences) and related constructs (present bias, status quo preference, affective forecasting error) is not always clearly maintained in the literature. The mechanisms may partially overlap. When it shows up: Predicting how your future self will feel, choose or behave. Estimating what others want based on what you want. Shopping hungry, deciding while sad, planning while rested.
Failure mode
The current state is projected onto the future (or onto others) as if it were stable. Groceries bought hungry are chosen for a hungry customer who will not be shopping. Advice given from a calm state is calibrated for a calm advisee who is not asking.
Countermeasure
Ask: 'What state will I/they be in when the decision matters?' Forecast into that state, not from the current one. Shop after eating; advise after the person has calmed down.
Related concepts
Also connected in the mapPresent Bias·The Empathy Gap·End-of-History Illusion·The Impact Bias·Restraint Bias·False Consensus Effect·The Yes-Damn Effect
Origin
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Entry #77 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon