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CONCEPT #028 ·VOL I The Individual · Judgment & Evaluation ErrorsLEXICON ENTRY

Illusory Correlation

Discovered by Loren Chapman, 1967 · Origin ↓

We see meaningful connections that aren't there because the brain finds patterns.
Category: BiasEvidence: ReplicatedUniversality: HighTier 1Type: Mechanismⓘ what these mean

This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.

Definition

The perception of a relationship between two variables even when no such relationship exists.

When it shows up

Interpreting correlations between unrelated variables; in any statistical analysis. Modern context: A growth team notices that two of their best-performing campaigns both ran on Thursdays and begins scheduling all major launches on Thursdays, attributing causality to a coincidence in a small sample.

Failure mode

Building false theories about causal relationships. Designing interventions based on spurious associations. Seeing meaningful patterns in noise.

Countermeasure

Ask: "What is the plausible causal mechanism?" Correlation without mechanism is a hypothesis requiring investigation, not a finding.

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Related concepts

Also connected in the mapThe Narrative Fallacy·Apophenia·Clustering Illusion·Correlation vs Causation·Pareidolia·The False Cause Fallacy

Origin

Loren ChapmanDiscovered by, 1967Loren ChapmanPsychology · 1927–2017His studies named illusory correlation - seeing links in data that are not there.See in Origins →

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This entry has the mechanism and countermeasure. The full write-up - real cases, sources, the audit prompt - comes later.

Entry #28 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon