This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
When it shows up
Conspiracy theories linking unrelated events into coherent narratives. Investors reading meaning into random market movements. Gamblers detecting "systems" in pure chance. Researchers finding correlations that are statistical artifacts. The more uncertain the environment, the stronger the drive to find patterns.
Failure mode
Building worldviews on coincidence. Conspiracy thinking accelerates because every new data point gets absorbed into the pattern. Confirmation bias and apophenia reinforce each other in a loop: the pattern makes you look for confirming evidence, which strengthens the pattern.
Countermeasure
Ask: "If this pattern were purely coincidental, what would that look like?" Require the pattern to make a falsifiable prediction before treating it as real. Apply CL-9 (Source Trace).
Related concepts
Also connected in the mapClustering Illusion·Confirmation Bias·Illusory Correlation·Agent Detection Bias·Pareidolia
Origin
Also revealed
Entry #2 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon