This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
A decision-making strategy where a person chooses between alternatives based on a single, most important characteristic rather than evaluating all factors. Often surprisingly effective - sometimes better than exhaustive analysis.
When it shows up
Fast decisions with many candidate features: choosing a restaurant, a house, a job offer. Situations with time pressure where full comparison is impractical.
Failure mode
One strong cue dominates the decision and all others are ignored, even informative ones. The heuristic works well when the best cue is genuinely the best but fails silently when a weaker-looking cue carries crucial information.
Countermeasure
For high-stakes decisions, list the three most predictive cues before using the top one. If one cue dictates the choice, verify it is the cue that historically predicts outcomes best in this class.
Related concepts
Also connected in the mapAttribute Substitution·Bounded Rationality·The Secretary Problem (The 37% Rule)
Origin
Also revealed
Entry #52 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon