This is a Lexicon entry: the mechanism, when it shows up, and the countermeasure. The full correction, with real-world cases and the audit prompt, hasn't been written yet.
Definition
The mistake of assuming winners have the best advice, ignoring that losers often dwell more reflectively on the specific mistakes that led to failure.
When it shows up
Business books, autobiographies of successful founders, advice from people at the top of any field. Any 'lessons from winners' discussion that omits the losers who did the same things.
Failure mode
Advice is generated from the visible winners, who survived the variance and presented as if their behaviours were the cause of their success. The invisible losers who behaved identically but got unlucky are not available to counter the story.
Countermeasure
Ask: 'How many people did the same thing and failed?' If the answer is unknown or large, the winner's advice is not disconfirmable and should not be updated on.
Related concepts
Also connected in the mapHindsight Bias·Survivorship Bias·Regression to the Mean Blindness·Pro-Innovation Bias
Origin
Read next
Entry #58 of 631 in The Lexicon · see the full Lexicon